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globes）在內(nèi)的多家海外媒體報道，全球最大的集裝箱運輸公司之一中國遠(yuǎn)洋運輸集團公司（cosco）已決定停止停靠以色列港口。這一事態(tài)發(fā)展是在紅海航運緊張局勢日益加劇的背景下出現(xiàn)的。<br>據(jù)報道，中遠(yuǎn)停止停靠以色列港口將嚴(yán)重影響以色列與遠(yuǎn)東地區(qū)的貿(mào)易。此外，與之密切合作的以色列以星綜合航運股份有限公司（zim）將不得不在遠(yuǎn)東航線上運營更多的船只，這可能會導(dǎo)致更高的運輸成本。再者，海法港也將受到直接影響，該港港口依賴于眾多中遠(yuǎn)船舶的?？?。<br>中遠(yuǎn)集團決定背后的具體細(xì)節(jié)尚未披露，但鑒于紅海作為全球航運通道的戰(zhàn)略重要性以及當(dāng)下惡劣形勢，此舉意味著世界航運動態(tài)的微妙變化。中遠(yuǎn)駐以色列代表未對此事發(fā)表評論。隨著消息傳出，以色列港口當(dāng)局正在積極調(diào)查此次暫停的影響。<br>全球90%的貿(mào)易或面臨嚴(yán)重中斷<br>最近紅海的敵對行動讓全球貨運陷入困境，但這并不是2024年開始時面臨的唯一問題。馬士基等巨頭表示，該行業(yè)處理著全球90%的貿(mào)易，面臨著嚴(yán)重中斷的可能性，從持續(xù)的戰(zhàn)爭到影響巴拿馬運河等主要航線的干旱。大型集裝箱船、油輪和其他大宗商品運輸船全年的復(fù)雜船期可能會不同步。這將增加沃爾瑪、宜家和亞馬遜等零售商以及雀巢等食品制造商和利德爾等雜貨商的延誤并增加成本。<br>由于巴拿馬的氣候破壞和中東沖突的蔓延限制了太平洋和亞洲至歐洲的貿(mào)易流量，預(yù)計這兩條航線的服務(wù)費率將大幅上升。<br>貨運數(shù)據(jù)提供商xeneta首席分析師彼得·桑德(peter sand)表示，2024年的額外風(fēng)險包括紅海襲擊可能擴大到阿拉伯灣，這可能會影響石油運輸，也可能影響重要的貿(mào)易通道。自2022年俄羅斯入侵鄰國以來，俄羅斯在烏克蘭的戰(zhàn)爭繼續(xù)影響著糧食貿(mào)易。<br>馬士基周五與其他主要海運承運商一起，將船只改道遠(yuǎn)離紅海，以避免在通往亞歐蘇伊士運河重要捷徑的地區(qū)遭受導(dǎo)彈和無人機襲擊。該航線處理超過10%的海運總量和近三分之一的全球集裝箱貿(mào)易。<br>雖然向歐洲運送石油和燃料供應(yīng)的油輪繼續(xù)通過蘇伊士運河，但大多數(shù)集裝箱船正在非洲南端繞道。由于蘇伊士運河改道，船東每次往返的燃油成本高達200萬美元，而亞歐即期費率比2023年的平均水平翻了一倍多，達到每40英尺集裝箱3,500美元。盡管高盛周五表示，通脹沖擊不應(yīng)像2020-22年疫情期間那么嚴(yán)重，但成本增加可能會轉(zhuǎn)化為消費者的價格上漲。<br>此外，新造船的大規(guī)模交付意味著運載能力不會受到威脅，但在非洲海角周圍轉(zhuǎn)移340萬標(biāo)準(zhǔn)箱（約占全球運力的12%）將導(dǎo)致船舶延誤、擾亂調(diào)度并導(dǎo)致港口擁堵。<br>行業(yè)分析師喬恩·門羅(jon monroe)認(rèn)為，船舶運營商將管理運力以推動運價水平上升。他表示：“預(yù)計海運承運人將通過停航來收緊運力，以制造積壓的集裝箱，這將支撐他們度過四月至五月期間，同時談判更好的合同價格。”門羅指出，承運商正在將開往美國東海岸的貨物運回西海岸港口，門羅認(rèn)為這是承運商“考慮陸橋過境帶來的一次機會”。<br>在歐洲，紅海危機的影響已經(jīng)對費率產(chǎn)生了重大影響。一位歐洲貨運代理告訴媒體，到2月份，運價可能會從目前的4-5,000美元/feu水平上漲至12,000美元/feu，因為1月份亞洲至歐洲的船舶艙位已經(jīng)受到限制，目前僅接受2月份出發(fā)的新預(yù)訂。<br>有跡象表明，由于胡塞武裝行動的影響預(yù)計將持續(xù)下去，這些價格將會持續(xù)下去，而歐洲零售商警告稱，價格將再次上漲。dynamar分析師darron 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